Michelle Grattan: University of Canberra

Women and their issues were at the centre in the 2022 election. They were an important reason why Scott Morrison was turfed out of office.

Morrison, his party and the government were seen to have a much-touted “women problem”, ranging from mishandling the Brittany Higgins affair to the under-representation of women among Liberal MPs. Issues around equality for women were to the forefront in the campaign of the “teals”, helping a cluster of professional women win seats from Liberals.

Will gender again be important at the 2025 election? Potentially – positively and negatively. Both sides hope that it will, in different ways, work to their advantage, while also fearing its downsides.

There has been a big turnaround in how women vote, compared with decades ago, when they leaned more conservative than men. Now they tilt to the progressive side of politics.

A priority for the Albanese government has been to deliver for women, and it has done so in a big way – from appointments to pay rises.

A female governor-general succeeded a male; a woman followed a man to head the Reserve Bank; it was the same story at the Productivity Commission. This week Treasurer Jim Chalmers highlighted that women form the majority on both new boards of the Reserve Bank. (They are also a majority in the caucus.)

At a policy level, Albanese has already implemented major child care reform. This month he promised Labor would guarantee three days subsidised care a week with no activity test. There is more to come in this policy area.

The government legislated to have the Fair Work Commission promote “gender equality” in minimum wage reviews and for expert panels to assist in gender-related cases.

It pressed for better wages for child care workers and is paying for the rises in the immediate term, at a cost of $3.6 billion over the forward estimates. More generally, it says the gender pay gap has never been smaller, and pledges to do more in closing it.

Apart from reflecting the personal convictions of Anthony Albanese and Minister for Women Katy Gallagher, the strong support for lower paid women is closely linked in with Labor’s trade union base. With an ever-expanding “care” economy, the union movement (currently led by two women) is being feminised in growth areas. On the latest figures 14% of all women employees are union members, compared to 12% of male workers.

Women voters are now vital to Labor’s support base and it will be relying on its record for them to deliver for it at the election.

Albanese also has a strong political interest in the teal women MPs holding their seats. These are not electorates Labor can win – they still belong naturally on the conservative side of the ledger. For Labor, however, they form a firewall against Peter Dutton.

The polls show the partisan gender divide on voting and leadership. This week’s Essential poll, on a two-party basis, has the Coalition on 51% among men, and Labor on 44%, with 4% undecided. Among women, Labor is on 49% and the Coalition on 46%, with 5% undecided.

The Resolve poll earlier this month had, as preferred prime minister, Dutton polling 40% among men, and Albanese 34%, with the rest undecided. Among women, Albanese was on 36% and Dutton on 31%.

Rather counter intuitively, given his background as a hard man of the left, Albanese’s style gives him an advantage over Dutton with female voters.

Dutton is aware of the possible dangers of particular issues weakening his position with women. The Queensland election, despite the sweeping win by the Liberal National Party, showed the risks of a scare campaign on abortion. Dutton acted quickly to shut down the abortion issue federally, which some right-wingers had wanted to ignite.

In the recent United States presidential election, where abortion was a hot issue, the Harris campaign hoped that it, and gender identification generally, would bring a wave of support for her. That surge didn’t happen. Broader concerns across genders, notably inflation, boosted Trump’s vote.

So is it possible that when our election comes, Labor’s advantage among women fades to some degree, reduced by more general cost-of-living concerns?

Simon Welsh, of Redbridge political consultancy, says: “what we’re seeing in the [focus] groups is that [working class women] don’t like Dutton, but they are open to him. That is, he needs to provide an economic platform they can support, but there is no longer an entrenched resistance to the idea of voting for him among working class women”.

If Labor has an advantage with women, Albanese currently has a “man problem”. Labor’s position with men, especially younger men, has become difficult since 2022, partly due to Albanese being head-to-head with Dutton.

Dutton is heavily targeting outer-suburban seats. The persona of a tough, blunt, un-nuanced former Queensland policeman goes down well with men in these areas. This is reinforced by the fact that in the last few years men (especially younger men and not just here but in other countries too) have become more alienated, feeling they are not being adequately heard.

Welsh says: “the sense of disempowerment, alienation, among young men means that what they want is a ‘shock’ to a system that they no longer believe operates in their interests”.

The opposition’s nuclear policy feeds into the gender split, with pluses and minuses for the Coalition. Men are more likely to see the policy as Dutton having a go; women are more inclined to have reservations.

Mid year, Essential asked people to rank the desirability of three energy sources. Only 48% of men ranked renewables first; 69% of women did so. Nearly a third of men (32%) ranked nuclear first, but only 13% of women. There was little gender difference among the few who put fossil fuels first. (One male observer quips that men “like big techy stuff”.)

Labor is worried about Dutton’s ability to erode its vote among men, and will be making what efforts it can to counter it. This includes running hard on how a Coalition government could wind back industrial relations protections that the Albanese government has brought in, and claiming a Dutton government would de-industrialise the country.

But it’s a hard slog. Compared with 2022 when the women were grumpy, it’s now the men who are grumpy, and they are very grumpy. Labor is highly alert to the problem, but is still searching for the answers.